Senior U.S. and European leaders opened this week’s NATO summit with a pledge to increase the alliance’s investment in military industrial production. This commitment comes amidst ongoing challenges in producing sufficient weapons and equipment to support Ukraine, more than two years after Russia’s invasion.
Despite Russian President Vladimir Putin’s aggressive ramp-up in tank and ammunition production, NATO has struggled to accelerate its own defense industry output. “The reality is that the war in Ukraine has demonstrated not only that the scopes have been too small, and that the production capacity has been delinquent, but it has also demonstrated serious gaps in our interoperability,” said NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg during a U.S. Chamber of Commerce event.
Stoltenberg announced that NATO allies will sign a new defense industrial pledge to increase defense spending, coordinate production more effectively, and enforce these commitments. However, he acknowledged that these efforts have so far been insufficient to meet the battlefield demands in Ukraine.
The urgency of closing this shortfall was underscored on Monday when Russia launched attacks on Ukrainian cities, destroying a children’s hospital in Kyiv and causing numerous civilian casualties. Russia is expected to intensify its air assaults in the coming months, targeting Ukraine’s energy grid and crucial infrastructure as winter approaches. Despite contributions from NATO allies, the air-defense systems provided have not been enough to halt these attacks.
While the U.S. and NATO allies have been discussing significant air-defense contributions for Ukraine, officials indicate that the announcements at the summit may fall short of expectations. The package is expected to include three American-made Patriot batteries from the U.S., Romania, and Germany, along with a European-produced SAMP/T antiaircraft system.
In the U.S., defense companies and the Pentagon have faced setbacks in increasing production of critical weapons. Supply-chain disruptions and labor shortages have extended the timeline for doubling output of U.S.-made Javelin antitank missiles to four years, twice as long as initially anticipated.
“We need to do more and we need to do it faster,” said Chris Calio, chief executive of RTX, which produces the Patriot missile-defense system. Despite these challenges, production is starting to accelerate. U.S. output of 155mm artillery shells has more than doubled to 30,000 since the start of the conflict and is expected to nearly double again by the end of the summer. Production of Patriot interceptors, Himars rocket launchers, and GMLR missiles is also ramping up.
Jake Sullivan, U.S. national-security adviser, highlighted these efforts during the Chamber of Commerce event, stating, “We are seeing the results as we speak on the battlefield.”
NATO countries have increased their defense budgets, with nearly one-third of expenditures now directed at equipment purchases, double the level from a decade ago. However, global demand for certain weapons systems exceeds supply by a factor of three, according to defense executives.
Bureaucratic hurdles also impede production. Much of the $45 billion in supplemental funding approved in April by the U.S. for Ukraine has yet to be contracted. Wahid Nawabi, CEO of AeroVironment, whose Switchblade suicide drones are widely used by Ukraine, cited contracting capacity and timelines as primary reasons for delays.
Senior NATO leaders acknowledged the difficulty in scaling up production. Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur noted that Lockheed executives informed him they could not fulfill an order for long-range ATACMS missiles before 2028. While Putin can quickly convert factories to arms production, democratic nations face lengthy planning processes.
Contracts are essential for production increases, as emphasized by Pevkur. “They need contracts. Without contracts, we will not get production,” he said.
The NATO summit has highlighted the critical need for increased arms production to support Ukraine and counter Russian aggression. As geopolitical pressures mount, NATO must navigate these challenges to bolster its defense capabilities and ensure the security of its member states.
Stay tuned for further updates on this developing story and its impact on NATO and global security.